21/11/2024
This model is a representation of Bitcoin's price trajectory over time, adjusted to account for global liquidity conditions.
The core of this model is the Power-Law, which describes Bitcoin's price growth as a nonlinear, predictable pattern often used in financial systems. However, this baseline model has been refined by incorporating the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in global liquidity, which reflects the total amount of money circulating in the global economy.
It also includes upper and lower bands, calculated by multiplying the liquidity-adjusted power-law model by a specific multiplier. For instance, the upper band might be 1.7 times the base model, while the lower band is a fraction of it, outlining a plausible price range given market variability.
These bands represent probabilistic ranges, not direct predictions, capturing uncertainty and potential price fluctuations. They enhance the model's ability to explain historical price trends and visualize future possibilities within the context of global liquidity dynamics.