Macro Chain Index

The Macro Chain Index (MCI) is a full-cycle valuation tool designed to assess Bitcoin's broader market positioning by integrating key macroeconomic forces. This system normalizes, detrends, and weights multiple macro indicators to provide a single, clear market signal.

By cutting through short-term noise, the MCI reveals when Bitcoin may be overvalued or undervalued relative to historical cycles. Additionally, the system incorporates the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify broader market trends, using its 52-week simple moving average (SMA) as a key threshold for distinguishing bull and bear market conditions.

Unlike traditional cycle indicators, the MCI provides a more comprehensive perspective by accounting for macroeconomic influences that impact Bitcoin's price action. This allows for better identification of long-term market shifts.

The Macro Chain Index helps users determine whether Bitcoin is positioned for a major move by analyzing its value relative to past cycle peaks and macroeconomic conditions.

Undervalued Zone: When the MCI signals significantly lower values compared to past cycle peaks, it suggests Bitcoin is undervalued, potentially indicating a strong buying opportunity.

Overvalued Zone: When the MCI approaches or surpasses prior cycle peaks, it signals potential market overheating, suggesting investors may consider risk management strategies.

Additionally, the RSI crossing above its SMA historically signals the beginning of a bull market, while dropping below it suggests a bear market. These signals, combined with the MCI, provide a powerful framework for understanding Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior.

Alpha Extract in March 2025