Global Liquidity Updates

Since our previous seasonality update, which highlighted an uptick in liquidity, the trend has not only continued but intensified.

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Our AE GL Heatmap now shows a growing presence of green zones, signaling a robust and steady increase in liquidity as we move through the year.

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With the upcoming FOMC meeting today, market expectations are leaning toward a potential 50bps cut, though a 25bps cut is still on the table.

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Any adjustments are likely to have a significant impact on the liquidity landspace.

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Needless to say, today is a really big day for the market. Circling back after FOMC ends.

Our liquidity index surged by a significant $2.26T last week, marking an impressive increase of 1.76% which puts liquidity higher than it was at '23 ATH.

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Bitcoin's rally? Not a big surprise to us, it's been perfectly in step with our liquidity measure, just as we anticipated.

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The major boost came from China's aggressive lending and credit growth, followed by a notable upswing in Fed liquidity.

The ECB's recent 25bp cut is yet another indication that central banks are preparing for what lies ahead.

We believe that if the Fed cuts rates by 50bp this week, the likelihood of the ECB cutting again in October is high.

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The rate-cutting cycle has arrived, and as the Fed looks to ease further, it encourages other central banks, especially China which is in a deflationary state, to keep pace.

Additionally, increasing holdings of government securities by commercial banks are adding more fuel to the trend.

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September is shaping up to be a bullish month for Bitcoin, and our seasonality chart points to even bigger moves in the upcoming months.

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Our GL Index has been consolidating for a while, but every time liquidity rises, Bitcoin follows.

The correlation is undeniable.

We’ve seen this trend play out before, and it’s happening again.

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RoC still negative, but it's on the right move to cross 12m in the upcoming weeks.

We’re seeing a steady rise in liquidity on our AE GL Heatmap, with the latest data reflecting growing market strength.

The green areas on the heatmap are becoming more prominent, indicating improving liquidity conditions across the board.

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September has started off strong, in line with our Global Liquidity Seasonality Indicator shared earlier.

Based on the same indicator, historically, liquidity tends to strengthen from September through December, and this year seems to be following that pattern.

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This could be a positive development as we approach the end of the year.