Probable Range Analysis
Probable Range Analysis is a sophisticated market tool that helps traders anticipate potential reversal zones with high accuracy, while also offering trend-following signals to support ongoing positions.
Probable Range Bands
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Understanding Probable Range Bands
The probable range bands uses statistical models to estimate potential future price ranges of selected assets. These ranges are based on historical volatility and probability distributions calculated from the entire dataset.
Confidence Levels:
- • 68% (1σ): Price is expected to stay within this range about 68% of the time.
- • 95% (2σ): Price is expected to stay within this range about 95% of the time.
- • 99% (3σ): Price is expected to stay within this range about 99% of the time.
Key Components:
- • Upper/Lower Bounds: Statistical probability bands for price movement
- • Current Price: Real-time asset price within the probable range
- • Confidence Bands: Shaded areas showing probability zones
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only, does not guarantee future performance, and should not be considered investment advice.
Probable Range Oscillator
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Understanding the Probable Range Oscillator
The Probable Range Oscillator is an oscillator that shows where the current price sits within its probable range bands. It's calculated as:(price - lowerBound) / (upperBound - lowerBound)
Oscillator Values:
- • 0.0: Price is at the lower bound of the probable range
- • 0.5: Price is in the middle of the probable range
- • 1.0: Price is at the upper bound of the probable range
- • Above 1.0: Price has broken above the upper bound (potential overbought)
- • Below 0.0: Price has broken below the lower bound (potential oversold)
Dynamic Bands:
- • Upper Band: Expanding mean + (Standard Deviation × Upper STD)
- • Lower Band: Expanding mean - (Standard Deviation × Lower STD)
- • Smoothed Oscillator: Moving Average of Oscillator values
The expanding statistics create dynamic upper and lower bands that adapt to the oscillator's historical behavior using the entire dataset.
Probable Position
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Understanding Probable Position
The Probable Position shows the difference between the Probable Range Smoothed Oscillator and the Expanding Mean. It's calculated as:Probable Position = Smoothed Oscillator - Expanding Mean
Signal Interpretation:
- • Positive values (green): The smoothed oscillator is above the expanding mean, suggesting potential strength
- • Negative values (red): The smoothed oscillator is below the expanding mean, suggesting potential weakness
- • Zero line: The smoothed oscillator is at the expanding mean
Key Features:
- • Multi-Timeframe: Manage positions on different timeframes
- • Dynamic coloring: Green above zero, red below zero
This indicator helps identify when an asset is positioned favorably or unfavorably relative to its historical behavior.
Enhanced Asset Ranking Dashboard
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Understanding Probable Range Analysis
The probable range chart uses statistical models to estimate potential future price ranges of selected assets. These ranges are based on historical volatility and probability distributions calculated from the entire dataset.
Confidence Levels:
- • 68% (1σ): Price is expected to stay within this range about 68% of the time.
- • 95% (2σ): Price is expected to stay within this range about 95% of the time.
- • 99% (3σ): Price is expected to stay within this range about 99% of the time.
Key Components:
- • Range Analysis: Statistical probability bands for price movement
- • Oscillator: Position within probable range (0.0 to 1.0)
- • Position: Difference between smoothed oscillator and expanding mean
- • Ranking Dashboard: Real-time overview across all assets
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only, does not guarantee future performance, and should not be considered investment advice.